The SBC-to-FCF ratio is brutal—nearly 4:1 is unsustainable for equity holders. I ran into this same issue analyzing SNOW last quarter. The comparison with Snowflake is instructive tho; at least MDB isnt burning as hard operationally. The $230-240 trigger makes sense if they actually commit to slowing dilution, but until managment signals that shift, its just hope pricing.
The SBC-to-FCF ratio is brutal—nearly 4:1 is unsustainable for equity holders. I ran into this same issue analyzing SNOW last quarter. The comparison with Snowflake is instructive tho; at least MDB isnt burning as hard operationally. The $230-240 trigger makes sense if they actually commit to slowing dilution, but until managment signals that shift, its just hope pricing.
It unfortunately happens to me far too often when looking at companies. SBC is just a killer, unless, of course you are an employee.